SWOD48
SPC AC 110823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
U.S. TROUGH BY LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS JET CORE INTO NRN BAJA WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS
MORE SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TO EJECT INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS A FEW DAYS
PRECEDING. PRIOR TO THIS DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE WILL
LIKELY BE EPISODIC EMBEDDED IMPULSES/SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF MODEL CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SCENARIO WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS IT WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DESPITE THE EXPECTED GRADUAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THAT SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE.
..DARROW.. 03/11/2012
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