SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021350
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-021515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...SCNTRL IND AND SW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...
VALID 021350Z - 021515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
CONTINUES.
THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND AND MAY REACH SW OH BY MIDDAY. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES
TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW 55.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL IL
ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW IN SRN MO. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MUCAPE VALUES NEAR THE
WARM FRONT ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
SCNTRL IL AND SCNTRL IND SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO
EXIST BUT THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THIS POTENTIAL
ISOLATED.
..BROYLES.. 03/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39838893 39398932 38798922 38438878 38288780 38538629
39158426 39588384 40138414 40278544 40148767 39838893
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