MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0235

ACUS11 KWNS 082029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082028
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-082130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AND FAR NWRN LA/SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082028Z - 082130Z

THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH
ANY STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SEVERE THREATS INCLUDING HAIL...AND EVEN DAMAGING WINDS OR A
TORNADO. THE LATTER THREATS ARE CONDITIONAL ON A STORM REMAINING IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR TRACKING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING
SE-E OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX FROM NAVARRO TO VAN ZANDT
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIDLEVEL CAP REMAINING
ACROSS NERN TX WHICH LIKELY HAS BEEN SUSTAINED BY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT
STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCED ASCENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. STORM MOTIONS THAT KEEP ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO
THREAT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. STORMS
LOCATED OVER NERN TX MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT...AND THUS TRANSITION
INTO A HAIL THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES ELEVATED. FARTHER NE
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR...SLOWER FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST
STORMS FORMING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE A GREAT POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION TO WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST UPDRAFTS
MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO BE MORE ROBUST UNTIL AIDED BY FRONTAL
ASCENT...AND THUS PROVE TO BE AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITOR TO GREATER
STORM COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 03/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31459730 32709600 33189542 33909451 34069378 33859311
33119280 32439364 31559510 30999654 31029715 31459730

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