SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082054
OKZ000-TXZ000-082200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082054Z - 082200Z
AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF
SRN OK. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2030Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS
OVER SRN OK. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...ROOTED NEAR 1.5-2 KM AGL AND AIDED BY 30 KTS OF SWLY FLOW
/PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE /7
DEG C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KTS...AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ORGANIZED/STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE MIDLEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND FOCUSED AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEAR TO BE
MAXIMIZED /PER 20Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD
PROGRESSION...WITH TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVING N-NEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
ISSUANCE OF A WW ATTM.
..ROGERS.. 03/08/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33909508 33799621 33889742 34039809 34259845 34799829
35119778 35149698 35069632 35049589 34779515 34429460
34039464 33909508
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