SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111631
LAZ000-TXZ000-111800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111631Z - 111800Z
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS MOVING INTO SERN TX TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
BAND FROM WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA NWD TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE TO
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES. THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING AS THE CONVERGENCE BAND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE THETA-E AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE
OVER SERN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLOWLY NWD WITH
TIME. VWP DATA INDICATE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER
OF 150-200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT. TENDENCY WILL BE
FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS SERN TX AS THE LLJ
SHIFTS NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 03/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29389509 29999533 32509432 32809338 31799333 29899396
29389509
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