SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122102
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-122200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA...NRN AND WRN MS...SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122102Z - 122200Z
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN LA...NRN AND WRN
MS...SWRN TN. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT LIMITS THE NEED
FOR A WW.
20Z VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODEST CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS /LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 35 WSW IER TO 15
ENE OF JBR/. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HEATING HAVE RESULTED
IN MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
INITIATION OF STORMS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE ENHANCED
BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS AR. IF THIS OCCURS AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER/ROGERS.. 03/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33118954 32219089 32199160 32409201 35328993 36018951
35408856 34778869 33118954
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