SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141942
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-142145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN MS...NRN AL...S-CNTRL TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141942Z - 142145Z
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NWRN MS...NRN AL...S-CNTRL TN.
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT LIMITS THE NEED FOR A WW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR HAS
KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONALLY... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT ABOVE 700 MB. AS A RESULT...AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG EXISTS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...OWING TO THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT /LOWER
MARGINS FOR PERSISTENT STORMS/. CONSEQUENTLY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
DMGG WINDS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER.. 03/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35508877 35908799 35758668 35168634 34528643 34278695
34258776 34468840 35028897 35508877
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