SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151808
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151808Z - 152015Z
PULSE TSTMS WITH A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISKS WILL PRIMARILY BE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE TSTMS
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS
THAT HAD PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MID-MS AND
PARTS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. VWP/UPSTREAM PROFILER DATA INDICATE
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WHICH HAS LIMITED EFFECTIVE SHEAR LARGELY TO
AROUND 10-20 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURES CONSISTING OF PULSE TO OCCASIONAL MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
MODES. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN
12Z AREA RAOBS...MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS OVERTURNED.
..GRAMS.. 03/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 37058966 38918855 39268717 39168560 38638481 38148416
37808312 37538204 37128162 37108164 36498182 35728285
35368456 35538720 36128868 36388932 37058966
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