SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161925
SCZ000-GAZ000-162130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN GA INTO WRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161925Z - 162130Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG. COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 DEG C/KM
PER 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND 18Z MESOANALYSIS...BRIEF BUT STRONG
UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND VERY
WEAK BULK SHEAR /LESS THAN 15 KT/...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 03/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 34028124 34258294 34188333 33958373 33228410 32598436
32128434 31958425 31398385 31198313 31208248 31278225
31678182 32468067 33228017 33758036 34028124
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