Monday, March 19, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0288

ACUS11 KWNS 191546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191546
TXZ000-191715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...

VALID 191546Z - 191715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84
CONTINUES.

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TX...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. THEREFORE...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 84 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT/BY 17Z.

TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG/JUST BEHIND A SLOW
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF AN EXTENSIVE COLD POOL AND NEBULOUS
LARGE SCALE FORCING AT THIS TIME...AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR
CORNERS/NORTH MEXICO...A SIMILAR NEAR/POST-OUTFLOW FOCUSED
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD PERSIST. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL...AND WHILE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION...THE EXISTING/EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE AND ASSOCIATED
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE WILL TEND TO ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE
HAIL LIKELIHOOD.

..GUYER.. 03/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31040167 31920113 32969993 33119874 31649962 30780082
31040167

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