SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191834
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD...SWRN MN...WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191834Z - 192030Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A LINE OF STORMS HAD DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ALONG A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM NWRN IA
NWD TO JUST N OF FSD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE AIR MASS HAS
DESTABILIZED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S. MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WERE NOTED VIA 17Z MESOANALYSIS AND WITH
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE MLCIN REMAINS WILL QUICKLY
ERODE. PER 12Z RAOBS...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-7.5 DEG
C/KM COMBINED WITH THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. WHILE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS
SEVERE THREAT...A WW MAY NOT BE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED AS STORMS MAY
STAY RATHER UNORGANIZED.
..LEITMAN.. 03/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
LAT...LON 43349667 44779731 45249736 45499698 45569575 45369494
44959433 44129382 43249340 42229351 41339361 40969391
40899442 41009489 41139521 41949587 43349667
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