SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191915
TXZ000-OKZ000-192045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191915Z - 192045Z
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A THREAT WOULD
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WOULD LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH
ISSUANCE.
EXTENSIVE COLD POOL PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...WITH
PERIPHERAL/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
FAR NORTHEAST OK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF SHERMAN/MINERAL WELLS/BROWNWOOD
AS OF 19Z. THE TX PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED
TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH SOME RECENT UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION EVIDENT PER RADAR/SATELLITE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
BROWNWOOD/STEPHENVILLE TX AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THE 18Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH WAS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL DEGREES C OF
WARMING AND ADDITIONAL CAPPING ALOFT /AROUND AND ABOVE 800 MB/ SINCE
THIS MORNING...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT ABATING
STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE COLD POOL MAY FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED RECENTLY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION TX...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A NORTHEAST-SURGING JET
STREAK ALOFT/INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.
..GUYER.. 03/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30460071 31030024 32249874 33449803 34539698 33759584
31609717 30030006 30460071
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