SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211739
OKZ000-TXZ000-211945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211739Z - 211945Z
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OF OK AS WELL AS NORTH-CENTRAL TX. HAIL
ASIDE...A FEW FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WATCH
COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED/CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX/SOUTHWEST OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TIED TO THIS CYCLONE...REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE
CONTEMPORARY RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL /500 MB/ TEMPERATURES
MAY BE AS COLD AS -25 TO -27 C. WITH AMPLE INSOLATION...LITTLE
NEAR-SURFACE INHIBITION NOW REMAINS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F IN MOST AREAS AS OF 17Z. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST /AND PERHAPS MIX-OUT TO
A DEGREE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT SHOULD BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF IT TO/ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STACKED
LOW COULD ALSO YIELD FUNNELS/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL...EVEN
WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
..GUYER.. 03/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35789985 36119961 36309911 35689827 35509670 33409612
32949696 33149768 34009845 34739978 35789985
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment