Thursday, March 22, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0328

ACUS11 KWNS 221834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221834
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221834Z - 222000Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME HAIL /MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND SOME
FUNNELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

AS A CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET EXIT
REGION CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CYCLONE. THIS IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/LOW-LEVEL HEATING
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-PIVOTING WEAK ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE/WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM/MOIST ACROSS THE REGION...INHIBITION HAS DIURNALLY
ERODED IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ACCORDINGLY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY
FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN MO. MEAGER TOTAL
BUOYANCY WILL TEMPER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL NONETHELESS BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.
FUNNELS MAY OCCUR AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMBIENT VORTICITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE
COLD/STACKED CYCLONE...BUT EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES SEEM UNLIKELY. GIVEN
THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER
MARGINAL/ISOLATED...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 03/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36719521 36749670 36159756 36609832 38029751 38469595
38639379 37809296 36849260 36549317 36719521

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