MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0330

ACUS11 KWNS 222102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222101
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND NORTHEAST TX/WESTERN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222101Z - 222300Z

LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK AND NORTHEAST TX AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN
AR. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COLD/VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
OK/SOUTHERN KS...IT SEEMS LIKELY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE/JET STREAK
ALOFT /PER REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA AND SATELLITE/ WILL
CYCLONICALLY PIVOT EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS
/INCLUDING RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE/ SUGGEST THAT THE
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD QUICKLY BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST /LOWER 50S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ NOR CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME...SUCH DEVELOPMENT
COULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ADJACENT FAR NORTH TX ON
THE FRINGE OF A THICK MID-CLOUD DECK AS IT ABATES/SHIFTS AWAY. EVEN
WITH MODEST OVERALL BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/...A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONAL UPON
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION MATERIALIZING...WIND PROFILES COULD
SUPPORT A MIXED-MODE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH FAST
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SEVERE
HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO.

..GUYER.. 03/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34069666 35119618 35839515 35879393 34929361 34059380
33399440 33079573 34069666

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