SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251631
NCZ000-SCZ000-251900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251631Z - 251900Z
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NERN SC INTO ERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN PULSE TO
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 20 PERCENT.
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB CYCLONE AROUND 35 NE FLO.
LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IMMEDIATELY W IN THE PEE DEE REGION WAS
QUITE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS FEATURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE FORMED INVOF THIS
CIRCULATION...WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF AGITATED CU ACROSS ERN NC.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND SREF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MLCAPE REACHING 600-1200
J/KG.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
HAIL. BUT FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK INVOF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 10 KTS. STRONGER SLYS AOA 600 MB SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO COASTAL NC. AS SUCH...PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE THE
DOMINANT MODE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE
HAIL...WITH A GREATER RISK FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENTS INTO
FAR ERN NC.
..GRAMS.. 03/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34117981 34647959 35207914 35577865 36187717 36197637
36007581 35687533 35197535 34537645 33787801 33567877
33547936 33797972 34117981
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