SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251948
CAZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGLES COUNTIES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251948Z - 252115Z
MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...WILL EXIST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. A WW IS NOT LIKELY.
WV AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
PLUME OF ASCENT QUICKLY MOVING EWD TOWARD COASTAL SRN CA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. AOB -20C/ LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A LEADING CLOUD BAND LOCATED APROX 60 MILES SW OF
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST...LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN /NEAR 7 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/...AND
MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. THIS
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AID IN DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING
UPDRAFTS...AS EVIDENT BY RECENT OFFSHORE LIGHTNING STRIKES. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONTAL SQUALLS AND POST
FRONTAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY MOVE ONSHORE FROM SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SEWD INTO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
BACKED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE L.A. BASIN NWWD INTO COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
..GARNER.. 03/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX...
LAT...LON 34081925 34301954 34392046 34812048 34921934 33851799
33661837 34081925
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