SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272103
TXZ000-272230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272103Z - 272230Z
LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
APPEARS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH SIZABLE LOWER/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BENEATH LIGHT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY TEND TO ALLOW FOR EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS SURFACE COLD
POOLS CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN. IF LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT IS
ABLE TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE SANDERSON AREA WITH A RISK
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TOWARD 23-01Z.
..KERR.. 03/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 30400348 30740245 30710190 29970194 29780224 29720312
29790342 30060350 30400348
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