SWODY1
SPC AC 052000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...SC/WESTERN NC...
HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ESPECIALLY HAIL/ ACROSS
THE REGION TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SURFACE LOW AND
NEAR/SOUTH OF A SAGGING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 461 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
...GA/FL...
FEW CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE REMAINING
POSSIBLE WITH AN ADVANCING MCS. A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...EITHER VIA THE
ONGOING EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND/OR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
...TN VALLEY...
NEAR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER LOW...ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF
TORNADO MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN WITHIN A VORTICITY
RICH ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/CLUSTERING SHOULD
LARGELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. LASTLY...AIRMASS MAY RECOVER TO A
DEGREE IN AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN MS/MUCH OF AL IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLY DAY MCS...BUT ANY HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
..GUYER.. 04/05/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU APR 05 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD
THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FORMER SYSTEM
WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BROAD BELT OF 50-55 KT WINDS AT 500 MB WITH A
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING NEWD ACROSS MS/AL/GA
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET STREAK WHICH WILL
DIG SEWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL TONIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF 15Z WILL
DEVELOP EWD TODAY BEFORE REFORMING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD/SEWD FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN FL BY 06/12Z.
...LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
AS OF MID-MORNING...RADAR DATA SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING...BOWING MCS
OVER W-CNTRL AL INTO SRN MS MOVING ESEWD AT 35 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
ROOTED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR /PER 12Z JAN SOUNDING/. DOWNSTREAM CLOUDS AND MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION TODAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY STILL APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG. BUT...GIVEN THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
VORTICITY MAXIMUM...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND AN
EXPANDING/DEEPENING COLD POOL...EXPECT THE BOWING MCS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL PNHDL TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW FORMING INVOF OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NERN
AR/WRN TN WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND TN
TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS TO THE S...STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL YIELD A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
OTHER DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD THROUGH SC. HERE...THE COMBINATION
OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
30-40 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL FOSTER STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
BY TONIGHT...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA INTO FL IN CONCERT WITH THE SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AN INTENSE NOCTURNAL
MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
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