DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK...

...SOUTHERN OK AND MUCH OF NORTH/WEST TX...
RELATIVELY LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. TSTMS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO DEVELOP AT MID AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SAGGING COLD FRONT. ESTIMATED
SHEAR/BUOYANCY AND NEAR-FRONTAL INITIATION SUGGEST THAT A MIXED MODE
OF MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS SEEM LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 473 AND SUBSEQUENT MCD/S ALONG
WITH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 150.

..GUYER.. 04/07/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012/

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS INTO
NORTHWEST OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF OK/TX. FULL SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CAP BY MID AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30-40 KNOT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

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