SWODY1
SPC AC 081951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN APR 08 2012
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...
FEW CHANGES...SEE PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A SLOW MOVING TSTM
CLUSTER...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIPHERAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAY POSE A CONCERN FOR EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
ANY SUCH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
...SOUTHERN NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX...
LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE/GPS DERIVED OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR/IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
..GUYER.. 04/08/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SUN APR 08 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WELL AS A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/NM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...CNTRL/NERN TX...
ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S CNTRL/SERN OK AND N CNTRL
TX CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN POSITION
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THINNER/MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TO THE S WILL ALLOW FOR THOROUGH
DESTABILIZATION AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F. AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO VEER TO WNWLY...THE
OFFENDING VORT MAX AS WELL AS A WEAKER ONE OVER N CNTRL TX WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT ESEWD...INITIATING NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER...AND ALONG A WEAK/DIFFUSE FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED NEAR SHV...S OF DFW...SWWD INTO JCT. SEMI-ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST WLY/WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT AND TALL UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL OF
GREATER STORM COVERAGE/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE AND PRESENCE OF
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER/INDEPENDENT UPDRAFTS CAN OCCUR.
...SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO ELY/SELY THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING A GRADUAL
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX. LIGHT UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH UPPER RIDGING MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE. NONETHELESS...WEAK ORGANIZATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
AMIDST VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST WLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT.
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