SWODY1
SPC AC 110045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS TH SRN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OK PANHANDLE
SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES EXTENDING ESEWD WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY
EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR 2 INCH AND GREATER HAILSTONES MAY
ALSO EXIST. LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS
THE REGION.
...OK/SRN ARK...
NORTHWEST FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AXIS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ESEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL OK INTO THE ARKLATEX. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ON THE ERN EGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE ARKLATEX
WHERE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. MODEL FORECASTS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP ELEVATED STORMS TO INITIATE IN
NCNTRL OK TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NCNTRL OK TONIGHT SHOW MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE WITH 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS THE STORMS
EXPAND SEWD INTO ERN OK AND WRN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 04/11/2012
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