Tuesday, April 17, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180102
SWODY1
SPC AC 180100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS FROM NORTH GA INTO
UPSTATE/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY LIMITED /LESS THAN 1000 J PER
KG MLCAPE/...A NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER IMPLIES DOWNWARD
INTENSITY TRENDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING/LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S F...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND AMPLE FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 04/18/2012

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