Monday, April 23, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231224
SWODY1
SPC AC 231222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL FRACTURE THIS PERIOD WITH NRN
BRANCH OF SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO WRN CANADA...WHILE THE SRN PORTION
MOVES SSEWD AS A CUT-OFF LOW W OF THE CA COAST. THIS EVOLUTION
COUPLED WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY
NEAR NRN BAJA/ WILL LEAD TO LOWERING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO GREAT BASIN...AND A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT OF PRONOUNCED
MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A GREATER COVERAGE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED OVER THE
PAST 24-HR WITH SIMILAR STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 04/23/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: