SWODY1
SPC AC 170556
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTH GA INTO PORTIONS
OF SC/NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS/CANADA DURING THE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX EARLY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS COMMON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER NORTH...SEVERAL
OTHER LOWER AMPLITUDE/FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST STATES...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND DESTABILIZATION/CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO A
DIURNAL UPSWING IN TSTMS ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF AL/GA
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THAT CONSEQUENTIAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE TO NEAR 750-1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3
KM...25-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH MUCH
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
MAGNITUDE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MODEST OVERALL
BUOYANCY.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
...MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIMITED BY LIMITED
DURATION/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION...BUT
NONETHELESS...SOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH AID OF AN APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS/NEB...OR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SHIFTING WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY RELEGATED TO THE
40S F THROUGH PEAK HEATING...INCREASING FORCED ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR
AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY
DIURNALLY/ MAY SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.
..GUYER/COHEN.. 04/17/2012
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