SWODY1
SPC AC 181223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. SOME
INCREASE IN AMPLIFICATION WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO OCCUR EARLY THU
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW
CONTINUES ESE INTO THE GRT BASIN. BUT APPRECIABLE DEEPENING OF THIS
FEATURE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THU AND FRI. IN THE MEAN
TIME...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MN EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO THE UPR GRT LKS
BY THIS EVE...AND INTO SW QUE THU MORNING...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER AL FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE SE CST. TSTMS SHOULD
BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE AL
IMPULSE. STORMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NRN RCKYS INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS.
...SE AL INTO NRN FL...GA...SC...AND SRN NC THIS AFTN/EVE...
A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SRN AL E/NE INTO NRN
FLA...GA...AND SC/SRN NC LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES
REGION AHEAD OF AL UPR IMPULSE. NEITHER LOW LVL NOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP...AND LOW LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK. 35-40 KT SWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY...HOWEVER...PROMOTE MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY SEVERE
MULTICELLS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY INTO EARLY TNGT...
MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED BEYOND LOW LVL MOIST AXIS OVER THE
CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY. BUT DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ALONG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY DECELERATES/STALLS
FROM NRN MI SW INTO CNTRL IA.
SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR TO FOSTER AT LEAST SOME
SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FROM SE WI SWWD INTO NRN IL AND
ERN/SRN IA. SPARSE MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW
50S F/ WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. BUT MODERATE...DIFLUENT WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/WIND
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT.
...CNTRL/NRN PLNS TO MID/LWR MO VLY LATER TODAY AND TNGT...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTN OVER WRN SD
AND THE NEB PANHANDLE AS LEAD DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST APPROACHES REGION FOLLOWING PEAK
HEATING. AGAIN...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP BUOYANCY FAIRLY WEAK.
BUT GIVEN 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW...SELY LOW LVL WINDS...AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A N-S
BAND AND BECOME CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE ESE AS A SMALL MCS ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS
OF SD AND NEB TNGT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF UPR
IMPULSE.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 04/18/2012
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