SWODY1
SPC AC 171227
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...INCREASINGLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WED. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER E TX
WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVE AND INTO AL EARLY
WED...WHILE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER ID MOVES ESE INTO MN/IA.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION E INTO THE
CAROLINAS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR STORMS THIS PERIOD.
...CNTRL GULF CST/GA/CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN OVERLAND TSTM COVERAGE
AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ALONG THAT PART OF FRONT
EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL AL INTO SC/SRN NC...WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED
1000 J/KG BY AFTN.
ALTHOUGH LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...30-35 KT SWLY 500
MB WINDS ATOP FRONTAL ZONE MAY YIELD A FEW CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF
WEAKLY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR STORMS. THESE COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. FARTHER
SW...LINGERING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER GULF MOISTURE
INFLOW...AND UPLIFT ON ERN EDGE OF NRN GULF MCS...MAY SUPPORT ISOLD
INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SVR WINDS...OR PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT...THROUGH
THIS AFTN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST.
...MID MO/UPR MS VLYS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
WHILE UPDRAFT STRENGTH/DURATION WILL BE LIMITED BY SPARE
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT/MID LVL EML PROVIDED BY ID UPR
IMPULSE MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR
LOW-TOPPED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH OVER
PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM TNGT THROUGH
EARLY WED FARTHER NE INTO MN AND NW WI...ALONG AND N OF ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT. COMBINATION OF 40+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LOW
TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 04/17/2012
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