SWODY1
SPC AC 090046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN APR 08 2012
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FAR SRN NM/FAR WEST TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX. AT THE SFC...WINDS ARE ELY ACROSS WEST TX
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN
MEXICO NEAR A LEE SFC TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD AND MAY CROSS THE BORDER INTO WEST TX THIS EVENING.
MESOANALYSIS ACROSS WEST TX SHOWS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY WHERE
SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH 50 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES NEAR
8.0 C/KM ON THE EL PASO 00Z SOUNDING MAY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT
THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...A LACK OF FORCING EXISTS BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND
MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 04/09/2012
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