SWODY2
SPC AC 041729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES AND FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER AR BY 12Z THURSDAY WILL
ADVANCE ESEWD AS IT PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTS SWWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD.
...SERN STATES...
SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD REMAINS CONDITIONAL OVER A PART OF THE
EXISTING SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD
OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MUCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT WINDS IN THE SFC-3KM LAYER SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THE EARLY STORMS COULD POSE
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EXTENT OF THE EARLY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DICTATE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL LATER
IN THE DAY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
OCCURS IN REMAINING PARTS OF WARM SECTOR.
MODEST WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FL PENINSULA. MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL
JET WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THUS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SC INTO THE TN VALLEY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
..DIAL.. 04/04/2012
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