SWODY3
SPC AC 180707
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...AR TO SOUTH TX...
WHILE THE NAM IS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER AND MORE SLY
TRACK WITH ITS TROUGH FRIDAY IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THE LATTER MODELS DIG AN UPPER LOW INTO SERN TX AS A
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...APPROACHING 90KT...TRANSLATES
ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD THE NWRN GULF BASIN. DESPITE THIS
STRENGTHENING/DIGGING SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL LAG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WITH SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KT EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FORMIDABLE CAP MAY
BE PRESENT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE A NARROW AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL WARM SECTOR SHEAR WILL
ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND FOR CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS AR/TX.
..DARROW.. 04/18/2012
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