DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280740
SWODY3
SPC AC 280739

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL MONDAY. AT LEAST THE WRN TWO
THIRDS OF E-W FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO OK
EARLY MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX INTO
SWRN OK.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF E-W FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM PARTS OF OK INTO KS AND THE MS
VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST...BUT DEVELOP SLOWLY NEWD DURING
THE DAY AS LLJ VEERS AND SHIFTS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EJECTING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NWD AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS.
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WRN TX. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
STORMS WILL BE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED WARM FRONT OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THIS REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND ACTIVITY WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AND DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE.
WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN SUFFICIENT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION AND A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN EDGE
OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT A PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2012

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