Wednesday, April 11, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110901
SWOD48
SPC AC 110900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS/ECMWF EACH MAINTAIN A TROUGH IN THE WEST WITH SWLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN D3/FRI ACROSS OK/KS TO MO/IA...WHILE
THE STRONGEST FLOW ON D5/SUN GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM W TX INTO KS.
THE GFS CLOSES A LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON D4 SHIFTING
IT ENEWD INTO CO/NM ON D5/SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE WRN TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR IS SIMILAR FOR D4 WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MREF. GIVEN THESE SIMILARITIES FOR D4 WITH EACH
MODEL INDICATING STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WIND FIELDS...A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SAT APR 14 FROM N
TX THROUGH MUCH OF OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA/SERN
NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND D5 PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY ADDITIONAL
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS AS THE WRN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY TO OH
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2012

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