SWOD48
SPC AC 170830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 04/17/2012
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