Monday, April 23, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230900
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AMPLE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONTINUANCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH DAYS 4-6...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BY DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/MIDWEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN
INITIAL MODEST QUALITY/DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND EVENTUAL
POSSIBLE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY THE WEEKEND...PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED/POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD
EXIST DAY 4/THURSDAY INTO DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR
ENCOMPASSING THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS.
SUBSEQUENT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...WITH THE
DEGREE/LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO OK/TX. BY DAY 6/SATURDAY...A SEVERE RISK
MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND
PERHAPS ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME FRAME.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2012

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