Wednesday, April 25, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250854
SWOD48
SPC AC 250854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT
THE BLOCKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
ONE...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES... WHERE A MORE
DISTINCT AND STRONGER ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN INLAND OFF A RECOVERING GULF OF MEXICO
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...INCLUDING
65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL YIELD INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...PROBABLY INCLUDING DAILY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNAL FOR A REGIONAL TYPE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
REMAINS LOW...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...WHEN PATTERN PREDICTABILITY IS AT ITS LOWEST.

..KERR.. 04/25/2012

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