Monday, April 2, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0414

ACUS11 KWNS 021749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021748
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...ERN/NRN GA...ERN TN...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021748Z - 021915Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC...ERN/NRN GA...ERN TN AND WRN NC. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT IS NOT APPARENT
ATTM...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z SHOW A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL KY
SEWD INTO NC...AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL ENTER
SC BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S TO MID
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING...MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUICKLY STEEPENING ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN CAP REMOVAL AND SUBSEQUENT
DEEPENING CUMULUS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS DESTABILIZATION
WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK NWLY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS POSING SOME THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..GARNER.. 04/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON 34197901 33177904 31968057 32448203 34028367 35058509
35728536 36098423 35858262 34197901

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