Tuesday, April 3, 2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431

ACUS11 KWNS 031843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031842
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-032015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN AR...FAR NERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031842Z - 032015Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS
OF FAR SERN AR...FAR NERN LA AND SRN/CNTRL MS. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 1830Z SHOWS A BOWING MCS LOCATED OVER FAR
W-CNTRL MS INTO FAR SERN AR. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SEWD FROM
THE MCS INTO SERN MS. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND W OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ARE WARMING TO AROUND 80F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WITH
CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES WILL RESIDE
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR A LONG-LIVED BOWING MCS...SEWD FORWARD PROPAGATION
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..GARNER.. 04/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...

LAT...LON 33919071 33898893 32768823 31308863 31179004 32429151
33229165 33919071

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