SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031917
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CNTRL IL...FAR WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031917Z - 032045Z
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
FORMING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NERN MO...CNTRL IL AND FAR WRN
IND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18-19Z PLACED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL
MO AND A WARM FRONT LOCATED SEWD INTO ERN IL AND SRN IND. WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID/UPR 50S TO LOW
60S. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES /FROM 7 TO 8 C PER KM/...WHICH WILL AID
IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH A FEW MORE HRS OF SURFACE
HEATING. UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION...A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE IS
MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG BOTH THE
COLD AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20-22Z. AREA VWP/S AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..GARNER.. 04/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41388997 41368766 40318690 39558738 39828965 38739148
38829239 40409134 41388997
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