SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051922
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-052015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN...FAR NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...
VALID 051922Z - 052015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145
CONTINUES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18-19Z SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NWRN
TN...WITH A COLD FRONT ARCING SEWD INTO AL...AND A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EWD INTO MIDDLE AND ERN TN. SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL DURING THE PAST 1-2 HRS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN STORM MERGERS AND RAIN COOLED SURFACE AIRMASS...THIS THREAT MAY
END FAIRLY SOON. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S EXTENDS NWWD FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO
SERN MO. GIVEN COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS
MOISTURE...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM
500-1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER.. 04/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 36508983 36508768 33928846 33939059 36508983
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