SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051937
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-052030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU APR 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...WRN NC...SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146...
VALID 051937Z - 052030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
CONTINUES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
CNTRL/NERN SC...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM WRN
NC TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW...AND THEN OFFSHORE FROM NERN SC. AIRMASS
ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT OVER SC IS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND
MLCAPE VALUES LOCALLY NEAR 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...A DRY SURFACE
AIRMASS OVER GA MAY ADVECT EWD INTO SC DURING THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO REDUCE CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LOCALLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SC SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS BACKED
SURFACE WINDS/ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND EVEN A TORNADO. FARTHER NW
ALONG THE FRONT INTO NRN/WRN SC AND WRN NC...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
WLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SVR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..GARNER.. 04/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 34818373 35338404 35518389 36048265 36048222 35568176
35558153 35508081 34807995 34257955 34287907 33857854
33577901 33077930 31828075 31838115 32448156 32608203
32848230 33248226 34818373
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