SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061811
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-061915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI APR 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN ND/SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061811Z - 061915Z
AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIATING IN WY AND PROGRESSING EWD INTO ADJACENT AREAS
OF WRN ND/SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
18Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS STRENGTHENING ALONG A COLD FRONT/LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A NEWD PROGRESSING
TROUGH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT VERTICAL MOTION...REFLECTED IN THE EARLY
INITIATION OF THE CUMULUS FIELD IN WY. HOWEVER...SCANT MOISTURE IS
LIMITING INSTABILITY...WITH CURRENT MESOANALYSIS ALSO INDICATING
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE OVERCOME WITH
SURFACE HEATING...AND AS THE FRONTAL/LEE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES EWD INTO SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE. DESPITE STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS...WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL HINDER GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45630325 43950273 42580296 41540337 41240420 41370493
42170536 43410515 45160431 45690391 45630325
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment