SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071929
OKZ000-TXZ000-072030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071929Z - 072030Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH TIME.
CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT...LOCATED AS OF
19Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TOWARDS MARFA TX...WITH A TOWERING
CU/DEVELOPING STORM OVER FISHER COUNTY TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES MAY INITIALLY HINDER A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS...FRONTAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A WELL
DEFINED LINE OF STORMS BY THIS EVENING. AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING HAS
NEARLY ERODED ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...PARTICULARLY FROM S CNTRL OK SWWD WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT/PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA IN NWRN TX/S CNTRL OK /AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..HURLBUT.. 04/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34849770 34099749 32779864 31430048 29340382 29780420
30650333 32210173 33519950 34719839 34869816 34849770
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