SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112321
TXZ000-NMZ000-120045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 112321Z - 120045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
CONTINUES.
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS AS WELL AS AREA WSR-88D VAD PROFILER DATA
INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40-50 KT. ADDITIONALLY...MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND AS SFC TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 04/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36410540 36400274 29960166 29970417 36410540
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