MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0531

ACUS11 KWNS 142049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142048
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS...WRN OK...FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142048Z - 142145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

THE SVR THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DISTRIBUTED
WITHIN 3 SPATIAL REGIMES:

1. DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS
SWD TO WOODWARD COUNTY OK WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD/ENEWD AMIDST
STRONG INSTABILITY. HILLSBORO/HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-1-KM
SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY
WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

2. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SWRN OK AND FAR ERN PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A
NARROW...NNE-SSW-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CONVECTIVE
PLUMES MAY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY ENTER OK WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE PRESENT.

3. FARTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL KS...A QLCS SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LEWP
STRUCTURE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND AT ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A W-E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 39819687 38409713 36879785 35349850 34469935 34540021
35060050 36120037 37750027 39310043 39849993 39949913
39969838 39819687

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