SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142147
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-142245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 166...168...
VALID 142147Z - 142245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 166...168...CONTINUES.
THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...AND
WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MO THIS EVENING. WW 168 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED
WITH A NEW TORNADO WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WW 166 CONTINUES.
21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
MCV FEATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
PREDOMINANTLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION. OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS...AN INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE NWD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED
NEAR THE NEB/KS AND IA/MO BORDER/...AND A MORE ORGANIZED MCS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL THEREFORE NEED TO
BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..HURLBUT.. 04/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41659506 41779399 41649311 41109249 40649257 40189345
39559484 39509562 39889659 40319706 41179701 41439654
41659506
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