SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152044
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-152215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152044Z - 152215Z
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NWRN LA.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LINE. HOWEVER...CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS WITH EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS SUGGESTS A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT REMAINS...AND
STORMS ARE STILL DEVELOPING ABOVE A LOW CLOUD DECK. THE INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE PARTLY
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING AND DEEPER ASCENT WITHIN UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT COULD EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE WRN PORTION OF
WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKER CAP AND SUGGESTING THAT
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES REMAIN STRONG WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG LLJ EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34199302 33739235 32139218 31709455 32749420 33909371
34199302
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