SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152254
WIZ000-MNZ000-160030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN...INCLUDING THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
METROPOLITAN AREA...PARTS OF NW WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...
VALID 152254Z - 160030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.
IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT TORNADOES WILL BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...
BUT THEY MAY BE IMPACTING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED MINNEAPOLIS/
ST. PAUL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITHIN A BAND OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BETWEEN
NOW AND 01-02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AND THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT RAPIDLY BECOMES STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTEND ACROSS AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
AREA...APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 04/15/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
LAT...LON 45329402 45639297 45629218 45249191 44809186 44569294
44479339 44689398 45329402
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