MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584

ACUS11 KWNS 242244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242244
SDZ000-NDZ000-242345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL ND / N-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242244Z - 242345Z

AN ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION LESSENS THIS RISK WITH TIME /AFTER 02Z/. THE
SEVERE RISK AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A SEVERE WATCH.

RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER W-CNTRL
ND WITHIN A UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO
90 DEG F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE
HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS ERN MT AND INTO WRN ND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INVOF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW...WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...AND THE REMOVAL OF
CINH THROUGH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING---HAS LED TO A FLARE-UP IN
WIDELY SCTD STORMS AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED FURTHER
ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...WITH LOW LEVEL SWLYS VEERING TO NEAR 50 KTS
AT 6 KM AGL PER KBIS VAD. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT AMPLE
STORM-SCALE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND HIGHER MOMENTUM TRANSPORT --
PERHAPS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG OR AN ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45090129 46400289 47190293 47470234 46860004 46179923
45519932 45000015 45090129

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