MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0625

ACUS11 KWNS 300305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300304
OKZ000-TXZ000-300430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206...

VALID 300304Z - 300430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
204...206...CONTINUES.

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WWS 204 AND 206. PORTIONS WW 204 MAY BE
EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SVR THREAT THAT CONTINUES PAST
ORIGINAL 4Z EXPIRATION.

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS W-S OF LBB IN WW 204 INCLUDES APPARENT
HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR REPORTS OF HAIL AT
LEAST 2.75 INCHES DIAMETER OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND ANOTHER SVR
TSTM BEHIND GUST FRONT OF SUPERCELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS SVR DOWNDRAFTS
FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE.
DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH...TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
SHORT TERM BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED/SELY/30-35 KT BRANCH OF
LLJ. RELATED LENGTHENING/CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SERVE TWO PURPOSES...
1. PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONE
INTENSIFICATION IN RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND
2. REDUCE NEGATIVE SRH FOR LEFT-MOVERS...SUCH AS ONE THAT CONTAINED
EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC COUPLET FROM W OF PVW NEWD
ALMOST TO PALO DURO CANYON.

FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT OF SRN PORTION OF KS/NRN
PANHANDLES MCS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NRN PORTIONS WW 206. AFOREMENTIONED LEFT-MOVER...AND ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL PANHANDLE...MAY MERGE AND
MOVE INTO WRN OK OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS WELL...OFFERING RISK OF SVR
HAIL/GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32520120 32300231 32850299 34910218 35880190 35909998
34390011 32890056 32590095 32520120

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