DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151620
SWODY1
SPC AC 151619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SC/NC/VA/MD...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EAST TN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS WHERE POCKETS OF
HEATING WILL HELP YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH TODAY /MID 60S TO NEAR 70F/. THE RESULT WILL BE
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG/. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS
REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER
STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...IA/IL/WI/LOWER MI...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...THEN EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHILE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.

...SOUTH TX...
A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTH TX...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY
WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/15/2012

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